In 2024, Zheng cotton rose in front of and fell behind, and the downstream replenishment at the beginning of the year pushed the futures price to a high of 16,480 yuan/ton. The new annual production increase, coupled with the peak season is not prosperous and other market pressure, the price gradually revealed the decline, the lowest touched 13200 yuan/ton.

In 2024, the traditional production and sales season is not thriving to become the norm, Jinsan silver four failed to bring significant improvement to the downstream market, and many cotton textile enterprises feedback cotton yarn, grey cloth, fabrics and clothing and other new orders are obviously insufficient. Although the opening probability of textile enterprises climbed to a high of 83% this year, it was sinificantly lower than the start-up level of more than 90% in the same period last year. Since May, the off-season of consumption has come, and most enterprises have reduced orders, which is difficult to support the normal operation of production capacity, and the situation of limiting production and reducing production is more common. In addition, the slow return of payment and working capital difficulties continue to suppress the purchase intention of textile enterprises, the insufficient release of raw material replenishment demand of enterprises, and the upstream continues to form negative feedback. Gold nine silver ten season color is not enough to disappoint the market, textile enterprises autumn and winter order performance is general, some enterprises perform peak production, the overall industry is still in a low boot state. Since then, the off-season has come again, the situation of new orders of enterprises is not good, the inventory of finished products continues to accumulate, the operating and financial pressure is greater, some small and medium-sized enterprises are affected by the lack of orders early holiday plan, and the industry's opening probability has declined. Textile enterprises lack the willingness to store raw materials before the year, mostly to consume the initial inventory and purchase according to the single demand, which is difficult to bring support to the cotton market.

In 2024, the sown area will increase, the yield per unit area will increase, and the cotton production will achieve year-on-year growth. Xinjiang cotton farmers have high enthusiasm for planting, and the area has increased more. The country's cotton yield per unit area was 144.8 kg/mu, an increase of 10.4 kg/mu over the previous year, an increase of 7.8%. The overall meteorological conditions in Xinjiang are conducive to cotton growth and development, and the growth rate is obviously better than that of the previous year, especially in the picking period.                                                                                                                                                                                           

                                                                                                                              Xinjiang has more fine weather, which is conducive to improving cotton yield and quality. Xinjiang's cotton yield per unit area was 154.9 kg/mu, an increase of 7.6% over the previous year. The cotton yield per unit area in the Yangtze River Basin was stable and increased, with a cotton yield of 73.2 kg/mu, an increase of 2.5% over the previous year. The country's cotton yield per unit area was 144.8 kg/mu, an increase of 10.4 kg/mu over the previous year, an increase of 7.8%. Driven by the increase in sown area and the increase in yield per unit area, the national cotton production increased, and the total output reached 6.164 million tons, an increase of 546,000 tons over 2023, an increase of 9.7%.

By region, Xinjiang's cotton output was 5.686 million tons, an increase of 574,000 tons or 11.2 percent over the previous year. Cotton output in the Yangtze River Basin was 221,000 tons, an increase of 0.2 million tons or 0.8 percent over the previous year. Cotton output in the Yellow River basin was 206,000 tons, down 33,000 tons or 13.7 percent from the previous year. Cotton imports in 2024 showed a pre-high and then low trend, hitting a full-year high in March and falling to a low for the year in October. In the first half of the year, the price difference between internal and external cotton was at a high level, the import profit window continued to open, the number of traders signed a high, cotton imports increased significantly year-on-year, continued to be higher than the same period, March set a high for the whole year and the highest level in the same period of 11 years 398,916 tons. This year, only 200,000 tons of sliding tariff import quotas were issued, and all were non-state-owned, limited processing trade imports, much lower than market expectations, some cotton-related enterprises and institutions had to reduce inquiries and purchases of imported cotton, and cotton imports declined significantly in August. In October, with the listing of domestic new cotton, the cotton inventory outside the bonded area is too large, and traders are not enthusiastic about importing cotton. The new orders of textile enterprises in the off-season fell back, coupled with concerns about the substantial tariff increases in the United States, some export-oriented textile and clothing enterprises slowed down the pace of foreign cotton swab contracts and imports, and cotton imports fell to a low of 105,851 tons in the year.

From the perspective of the main import source countries, Brazilian cotton has seized the Chinese consumer market by virtue of its cost-effective cotton, becoming the largest seller of imported cotton in 2024, serving as the largest monthly supplier for six times, and importing 1.03 million tons of cotton from Brazil in January to November, accounting for 41.37% of the total imports. The United States became the second largest supplier, importing 870,000 tons of cotton from the United States, accounting for 34.87% of the total import. Australia is the third largest supplier, importing 300,000 tons of cotton from Australia, accounting for 11.90% of the total import.

With the concentrated market of new cotton in the northern Hemisphere, the global cotton supply pattern has been settled, and the US Department of Agriculture in December increased its estimates of unit yield, production and ending stocks in the US 2024/2025 year to varying degrees. The yield estimate was raised by 3 pounds per acre to 792 pounds per acre, while the total production estimate was raised by 70,000 bales to 14.26 million bales. The forecast for US cotton exports is unchanged at 11.3 million bales, leaving the total US cotton consumption forecast steady at 13.1 million bales. Under the combined impact, the US cotton ending stock estimate for 2024/2025 has been increased by 100,000 bales to 4.4 million bales. Global cotton supply and consumption in 2024/2025 are expected to increase simultaneously, but as consumption growth is less than supply, the ending inventory forecast is revised up to 76.02 million bales. 2024/2025 supply and demand in a relatively loose state, the focus of the market gradually shifted to the global consumption situation, the United States after a large number of new cotton listed, the pace of exports will usually be accelerated, export contracts once remained active. However, the adjustment of Sino-US trade policy is expected to deepen the uncertainty of future global cotton consumption, and the external macro and demand situation remains to be paid attention to.

The global and domestic supply pattern in the New Year is relatively loose, the new cotton supply in the main producing countries in the northern hemisphere is formed, and the huge potential for increasing production in Brazil may be further tapped, which will bring new supply pressure to the world. The characteristics of the domestic off-season are obvious, downstream orders continue to be light, the source is slightly better, but the boost to domestic demand is more limited, cotton textile enterprises continue to weaken, the overall capital chain is tight, and the willingness to stock before the Spring Festival is insufficient. In the short term, the cotton market will face the pressure of supply increase and weak demand, and the medium and long term trend needs to consider the new orders of textile enterprises, the willingness of cotton farmers to plant new products, the rhythm of imported goods to Hong Kong, the trend of the US dollar and the actual landing effect of favorable macro policies, and other factors, then the market will respond based on the actual situation.